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#hypotheses

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Le nouveau conseil scientifique d'Hypothèses, dont je fais désormais partie, a tenu sa première réunion mardi.

L'occasion de faire connaissance et d'échanger avec l'équipe d'Hypothèses sur le fonctionnement et le contexte actuel (qui n'est pas très positif, avec la fermeture du formulaire de candidature depuis plusieurs mois).

L'ancien conseil scientifique d'Hypothèses avait pris position fin février pour alerter sur le manque de moyens financiers alloués à Hypothèses, qui est directement responsable de cette situation : blogterrain.hypotheses.org/235

blogterrain.hypotheses.orgLe Conseil Scientifique d’HYPOTHESES prend positionLes Carnets de Terrain relaient la prise de position de la plateforme Hypothèses, un acteur majeur de la valorisation de la recherche en France et de son libre accès, dans le contexte de restriction des dotations budgétaires.

Ça y est, je crois que je peux le dire publiquement, puisque je viens d'avoir le mail officiel d'OpenEdition avec toutes les informations : je suis ravi d'intégrer le conseil scientifique de la plateforme Hypothèses pour ces prochaines années !

Après 10 ans de blogging scientifique plus ou moins régulier, dans plusieurs carnets Hypothèses (mon carnet personnel et des carnets collectifs), je souhaite m'investir davantage dans la réflexion collective autour du présent et du futur d'Hypothèses. Les sujets des carnets de doctorant·es/jeunes chercheur·es et des carnets collectifs m'intéressent particulièrement.

fr.hypotheses.org/perimetre-et (la liste des nouveaux membres n'est pas encore disponible mais ça ne saurait tarder)

fr.hypotheses.orgPérimètre et fonctionnement du conseil scientifique d’HypothèsesGénéralités La structuration du CS d’Hypothèses doit être conforme aux critères d’exemplarité promus par Ouvrir la science, et notamment : Le CS d’Hypothèses agit par délégation du CS d’OpenEdition. La composition du CS d’Hypothèses est validée...
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@paninid p-values, to a large extent, exist because calculating the posterior is computationally expensive. Not all fields use the .05 cutoff.

A p-value is an #estimate of p(Data | Null Hypothesis). If the two #hypotheses are equally likely and they are mutually exclusive and they are closed over the #hypothesis space, then this is the same as p(Hypothesis | Data).

Meaning, under certain assumption, the p-value does represent the actually probability of being wrong.

However, given modern computers, there is no reason that #Bayesian odds-ratios can't completely replace their usage and avoid the many many problems with p-values.

Ink and Rat Poison

In the Arti che vanno per via in Venezia (1753) by Gaetano Zompini, one of the trades depicted is a man with a long stick with dead rats attached, and also a series of bottles or jugs in his belt.

The associated poem says (in my translation):

I'm the one who sells fine ink for writing,
And I also have the stuff for rats,
That is, a very terrible poison for them.

The man is thus selling both writing ink and rat poison. The containers on his belt are conceivably for the ink and/or rat poison.

#LifeCustomsAndWaysOfDoingThings #Hypotheses #RatPoison #Rats #Venezia #Venice #WritingInk

Read more here: https://historywalksvenice.com/article/daily-life-and-customs/ink-and-rat-poison/

I see a lot of people talking about #science as a #religion, or the closely related idea of “#scientism,” the purported ideology that says science is the only way to know things. Oh, I’m not talking about you, they’ll solemnly assure anyone who objects. Naturally you know better. Just … you know … them. Those people, out there. The great unwashed. On the #internet, nobody knows how long it’s been since you took a shower.

You know what I hardly ever see? The phenomenon in question.

There are people who think that way. Yes. Ideologues of science—hardly if ever #scientists themselves—who invoke The #Scientific Method™ (that’s a whole ‘nother rant) as the be-all and end-all justification for whatever nonsense they spew. Such posts and comments have crossed my feed a time or two. But they are vastly outnumbered by those who complain about them, at least where I can see both groups. I have no reason to believe my experience is atypical in this regard.

As a scientist myself, I think science is a very good way to understand certain things. In my field, it’s the best way to know what makes you sick, and hopefully what will make you better. There are other ways to learn these things, sure, and many of them can be useful places to start. If you don’t end up with a #clinical #trial sooner or later, you’re as likely to kill as cure.

To know what we’re seeing when we look up at the lights in the sky. How the natural world around us, of which we’re a part whether we like it or not, changes and how we both affect and are affected by that change. What came before us, and what might come after. The fundamental building blocks of reality. All these require science for real understanding. If you try to puzzle them out any other way, you may learn something, but you’ll also fill your head with a lot of nonsense. Sorting the wheat from the chaff later is a lot harder than doing it right the first time.

Other questions are at least amenable to scientific inquiry, although that process itself may not be enough. What my fiancee does as a #historian looks, to me, a lot like what I do as a #biomedical #researcher. Make observations, construct #hypotheses, gather evidence, test and revise. (And revise, and revise, and …) But #history vanishes every minute. What’s left is always fragmentary, and shaped by the interactions of modern minds with those long since gone to dust. There will never be an objective truth, only the truest story that can be told.

And then there are things beyond any kind of quantitative analysis, or even rigorous qualitative description. We may be able to agree on what makes a true story, more or less, but what makes a good one? That’s inherently personal. A happy marriage, a tasty meal, a satisfying job—only we can define what these goals mean for ourselves. Science may at best, occasionally, provide vague guidelines. Even then, my advice will not determine your experience.

My perspective is unusual in one key way, sure: not too many people do science for a living, at least not compared to other jobs. With regards to the way people talk about science, I think it’s not unusual at all, except maybe that I pay particular attention.

The division above—things that clearly belong in science’s domain, things that clearly don’t, and a whole bunch in the middle—is a whole lot more common than the idea of science as the One True. It’s at least somewhat more common than blanket rejection of science too, but not as much as it should be. That’s also a rant for another time.

Which all makes me wonder what people who never miss a chance to bring up “scientism” and science-as-religion get out of it.

It takes a total #idiot to make a statement without #proof.

youtube.com/shorts/RObkTdAI8zU

I should know, I make all sorts of statements based only on my #engineering experience. Then I test those statements and I change them if I was wrong. I call them "#hypotheses". There's no faith behind them other than what you know from past experience or new test results.

#introduction Je suis doctorant à l'Université de Lorraine. Historien de l'art passé du coté obscur de l'#histoire, je travaille sur une #prosopographie sociale de l'art des #artistesfemmes en Lorraine entre 1860 et 1914.
Pour suivre mes travaux c'est sur mon #hypotheses : q2p.hypotheses.org/
Geek irrécupérable, je réalise des #basededonnées et des #graph. Mordu de #bibliographie, je parle aussi de #zotero
#histodon

q2p.hypotheses.orgQuiDames peintresses – Histoire sociale des femmes artistes dans l'Est