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#pawx

19 posts14 participants2 posts today
BakersRelay<p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Area Forecast Discussion<br>NWS State College PA<br>642 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025</p><p>NEAR TERM</p><p>Early AM update holds only minor tweaks to the sky cover. Band of clouds over Cambria/Blair/Hunt Cos is making radar returns, but monitoring PA RWIS site in Bellwood shows no decrease in vsby all night. Expect that this one patch may linger for the morning. But, elsewhere, no other changes were necessary.</p><p>Prev...<br>The warm advection from the west aloft is generating patchy clouds over the western mountains. These are creeping slightly into the Central zones, and will likely hang out there and perhaps extend into the Lower Susq, too. But, they won`t be solid, and a partly sunny is the worst the forecast will hold. The WAA and moisture transport really kick in as low pressure moves quickly out of the High Plains into IL by 00Z. A warm front will nudge into far SWrn PA tonight. Lift over the cold air here at the sfc will touch off rain which will be moving into the western mountains by nightfall. After the frosty start, temps will rise to maxes of around 40 in the cool spots in the nrn tier, to the L50s in the srn valleys.</p>
NWS Mount Holly (bot)<p><a href="https://gardenstate.social/tags/NJwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NJwx</span></a> <a href="https://gardenstate.social/tags/NYwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NYwx</span></a> <a href="https://gardenstate.social/tags/NWSMountHolly" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NWSMountHolly</span></a> <a href="https://gardenstate.social/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a> <a href="https://gardenstate.social/tags/PhillyWx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PhillyWx</span></a></p>
IEMbot CTP<p><a href="https://bots.krohsnest.com/tags/CTP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CTP</span></a> <a href="https://bots.krohsnest.com/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a> 194 <br>WWUS71 KCTP 081721<br>NPWCTP</p><p>URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE<br>National Weather Service State College PA<br>121 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025</p><p>PAZ036-057-059-063&gt;066-091300-<br>/O.NEW.KCTP.FZ.W.0001.250409T0600Z-250409T1300Z/<br>Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-<br>Including the cities of Hershey, Lebanon, York, Chambersburg,<br>Lancaster, Gettysburg, Carlisle, and Harrisburg<br>121 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025</p><p>...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... <a href="https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/f/2025-O-NEW-KCTP-FZ-W-0001_2025-04-09T06:00Z" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec</span><span class="invisible">/f/2025-O-NEW-KCTP-FZ-W-0001_2025-04-09T06:00Z</span></a></p>
BakersRelay<p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Area Forecast Discussion<br>NWS State College PA<br>358 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025</p><p>NEAR TERM</p><p>Gusty NW wind ushering in much drier and cold air. Streamers off the lakes could produce a dusting on the west-facing slopes this morning. The air gets dry enough and temps just mild enough with breaks of sun in the N &amp; W to keep snow from sticking in the late morning and aftn. Clouds go retreat to the NW through the day. By evening, much of the area will be clear. High pressure floats overhead for the overnight period. Frost is expected in many areas late tonight and Wed morning. The NW will try to hang onto the lower clouds, and could stay milder than expected (upper teens). Much of the area is just starting the growing season, but still not to the average date of their last freeze of the season. Mins will be in the m20s S.</p>
theweatherguy<p>THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Philadelphia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Philadelphia</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Showers Drizzle But Really not much Rainfall</p><p> Despite all the clouds, fog, drizzle and showers/rain we had over the past several days, many areas did not receive much need accumulated rainfall. Here's the 72 hour totals— ... <a href="https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23725" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23725</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p>
BakersRelay<p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Area Forecast Discussion<br>NWS State College PA<br>526 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025</p><p>NEAR TERM</p><p>A weak wave of low pressure nestled beneath the right entrance region of an upper level jet, stretched from Northern new England to the Ohio River Valley, will bring another several hours of light rain or mixed precip in the Valleys and mainly wet snow at elevations above 1600 ft MSL with light accums of a coating to an inch or so above 2000 FT MSL.</p><p>LLJ forcing has been lacking so far with T/Td spreads of 8-14 deg F earlier in the overnight taking several hours to narrow and slight strengthening of the mid and upper level jet causing some increase in broader scale uvvel, allowing for more efficient precip production.</p><p>The NW edge of this precip shield will sag gradually to the south and east late this morning and this afternoon, but some light rain and higher elevation mixed precip will persist across the SE half of the CWA into the mid afternoon, before some weak ridging slides overhead, just ahead of a strong cold front.</p><p>A few breaks of sun are possible later this afternoon, mainly across the NW Mtns and Laurel highlands, closer to the aforementioned ridging, while thicker/layer clouds persist over the Central and Eastern parts of the CWA.</p><p>Max temps today will be mainly in the mid to upper 40s, but could touch 50 in the KTHV area, while the upward climb in readings could be halted at 39 or 40F over the highest terrain of the North and West.</p>
theweatherguy<p>THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Philadelphia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Philadelphia</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>The slowly moving cold front that passed through today will spawn another low pressure system tonight into Monday. Cold air will filter in behind this low.</p><p>It should be noted that while several models were originally forecasting some clearing Monday afternoon, while the ECMWF-AI model . <a href="https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23725" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23725</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p>
BakersRelay<p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Area Forecast Discussion<br>NWS State College PA<br>429 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025</p><p>NEAR TERM</p><p>…eastern half of PA to create periods of light to moderate rain through about 12-14Z today. The bulk of the rain will occur over the SE half of the CWA where an additional 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch of rain is expected.</p><p>the leading edge of SFC ridging and the bulk of the rain will shift to the southern tier counties of PA by the late morning and into the Virginias this afternoon as drier air advects south across the region at the lowest levels. Southwesterly flow above this initially very shallow colder air mass will keep plenty of thick clouds across the entire region today with bases not likely rising above 5 or 6 KFT AGL anywhere (and lower CIGS hanging tough over the southern tier and NRN/WRN Mtns of the state.</p><p>Lingering showers along with some areas of drizzle and fog on the ridges will occur across Southern PA through dusk today.</p><p>Min temps this morning will range from the mid 30s across the Far NW to the low-mid 50s across the southern Valleys.</p><p>High temps today will display a fairly large, 20 to 25 deg F range from NW to SE across the CWA , with maxes between 35-40 F near and to the west of KBFD and in the mid to upper 50s across Far southern York and Lancaster Counties.</p>
theweatherguy<p>WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Philadelphia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Philadelphia</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Disturbances moving along a somewhat stationary warm frontal boundary to our south will co ... <a href="https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23712" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23712</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p>
theweatherguy<p>WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Philadelphia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Philadelphia</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Disturbances moving along a somewhat stationary warm frontal boundary to our south will continue to affect our weather this weekend.</p><p>There won't be much in the way of sunshine this weekend, as low clouds, rain, drizzle and thunderstorms will each make an appearance through Monday. <a href="https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23712" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23712</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p>
NWS State College (bot)<p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/CTP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CTP</span></a></p>
BakersRelay<p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Area Forecast Discussion<br>NWS State College PA<br>531 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025</p><p>NEAR TERM</p><p>Surface cold front has pushed south of PA as of 09Z. However, fgen forcing beneath the right entrance region of a jet streak over the E Grt Lks will support a period of post-frontal rain early this morning over the southern counties.</p><p>The jet streak and associated fgen forcing is progged to lift away from the region today, resulting early rain ending over the southern counties. High pressure and an associated drier airmass passing north of PA should result in mainly dry weather later today across the bulk of Central PA with brightening skies, especially over the northern counties. The airmass behind the this morning`s dying cold front is relatively mild for early April and GEFS 2m temp anomalies support highs a few degrees above climo, ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s over the bulk of the area.</p>
theweatherguy<p>THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Philadelphia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Philadelphia</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Strong Thunderstorms Possible Late Tonight</p><p>The warm front moved north of our area today, Thursday, allowing very mild and humid air to move into our region. The same air mass boundary will return tonight as a cold front.</p><p>The air over us is unstable and there is will be enough CAPE, vertical wind shear and helicity to aid in the formation of some strong, possibly severe thunderstorms in the 2 AM -6 AM time frame. <a href="https://theweatherguy.net" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">theweatherguy.net</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p>
IEMbot CTP<p><a href="https://bots.krohsnest.com/tags/CTP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CTP</span></a> <a href="https://bots.krohsnest.com/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a> 515 <br>NOUS41 KCTP 031238<br>PNSCTP<br>PAZ046-032000-</p><p>Public Information Statement<br>National Weather Service State College PA<br>838 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025</p><p>...NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS STATION PLANNED OUTAGE IN<br>WILLIAMSPORT...</p><p>NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Station WXL-55, located in<br>Williamsport, may be off the air intermittently late this <br>morning and early afternoon due to maintenance at the site.</p><p>We apologize for the inconvenience.</p><p>$$<br> <a href="https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504031238-KCTP-NOUS41-PNSCTP" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph</span><span class="invisible">p?pid=202504031238-KCTP-NOUS41-PNSCTP</span></a></p>
IEMbot CTP<p><a href="https://bots.krohsnest.com/tags/CTP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CTP</span></a> <a href="https://bots.krohsnest.com/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a> 377 <br>WWUS81 KCTP 031135<br>SPSCTP</p><p>Special Weather Statement<br>National Weather Service State College PA<br>735 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025<br> <br>PAZ033&gt;035-031200-<br>Bedford PA-Fulton PA-Somerset PA-<br>735 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025</p><p>...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BEDFORD...FULTON AND SOUTHEASTERN<br>SOMERSET COUNTIES THROUGH 800 AM EDT...</p><p>At 735 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong <br>thunderstorms along a line extending from Bedford to Paw Paw. <br>Movement was east at <a href="https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504031135-KCTP-WWUS81-SPSCTP" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph</span><span class="invisible">p?pid=202504031135-KCTP-WWUS81-SPSCTP</span></a></p>
BakersRelay<p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/KYwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>KYwx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/OHwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>OHwx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/WVwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WVwx</span></a> </p><p>URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED<br> Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 105<br> NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br> 1255 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025</p><p> The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a</p><p> * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of <br> Northeast Kentucky<br> Eastern Ohio<br> Extreme Western Pennsylvania<br> Western and Northern West Virginia<br> Lake Erie</p><p> * Effective this Thursday morning from 1255 AM until 700 AM EDT.</p><p> * Primary threats include...<br> Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible<br> A tornado or two possible</p><p> SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over western Ohio will<br> track eastward across the watch area overnight, posing a risk of<br> locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.</p><p> The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50<br> statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west of Erie PA<br> to 35 miles southwest of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of<br> the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS<br> WOU5).</p>
BakersRelay<p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Area Forecast Discussion<br>NWS State College PA<br>602 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025</p><p>NEAR TERM</p><p>Dying squall line has just crossed the Allegheny crest and the line has weakened as it approaches Altoona. Local gusts GT 45 mph still possible through 6:30 AM, but with more stable stratification and dewpoints in the 40s east of the mountains, the threat for strong gusts is decreasing early today, and we are not anticipating widespread impacts along and east of the Laurels given observed tendancy and line moving into more stable air with lower dewpoints in the 40s east of the mountains. Farther east, stability remains high while llvl moisture from persistent southeast flow results in plenty of low clouds and fog blanketing the ridges this morning. Temps steady or slowly rise through dawn, rising into the 50s almost everywhere and near 60F in the Laurels at sunrise.</p><p>The baroclinic zone sags ESE across western and central PA this morning with highest POPs now through 15z across northern and central areas, and lingering through 18z for the Laurel Highlands as the front stalls south of the Mason Dixon line later on. Main question for today is whether recovery is allowed to occur in a sheared and mostly cloudy environment. Far southeast may stand the greatest chance for storms as the boundary remains nearby and binovc may provide enough sfc heating to initiate. Most CAMs downplay this potential however, and we are leaning in this direction as well at this time.</p>
BakersRelay<p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/KYwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>KYwx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/OHwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>OHwx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED<br> Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 105<br> NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br> 1255 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025</p><p> The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a</p><p> * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of <br> Northeast Kentucky<br> Eastern Ohio<br> Extreme Western Pennsylvania<br> Western and Northern West Virginia<br> Lake Erie</p><p> * Effective this Thursday morning from 1255 AM until 700 AM EDT.</p><p> * Primary threats include...<br> Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible<br> A tornado or two possible</p><p> SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over western Ohio will<br> track eastward across the watch area overnight, posing a risk of<br> locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.</p><p> The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50<br> statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west of Erie PA<br> to 35 miles southwest of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of<br> the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS<br> WOU5).</p>
IEMbot CTP<p><a href="https://bots.krohsnest.com/tags/CTP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CTP</span></a> <a href="https://bots.krohsnest.com/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a> 130 <br>WWUS20 KWNS 030453<br>SEL5 <br>SPC WW 030453<br>KYZ000-OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-LEZ000-031100-</p><p>URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED<br>Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 105<br>NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br>1255 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025</p><p>The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a</p><p>* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of <br> Northeast Kentucky<br> Eastern Ohio<br> Extreme Western Pennsylvania<br> Western and Northern West Virginia<br> Lake Erie</p><p>* Effective this Thursda <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2025/ww0105.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/20</span><span class="invisible">25/ww0105.html</span></a></p>
theweatherguy<p>THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Philadelphia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Philadelphia</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/PAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PAwx</span></a></p><p>Interesting Forecast</p><p>The upcoming forecast period into the weekend will be interesting. The AI models are forecasting considerable rain in our area, while the regular numerical models are forecasting the axis of rain to be to our north. The current water vapor image illustrates this difference— ... <a href="https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23685" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=23685</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p>
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