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Mesoscale Discussion 0898
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
Areas affected...far eastern Missouri...southeast
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and western Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 200607Z - 200730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Wind damage and QLCS tornado threat may persist east of Tornado Watch 298. An extension in space of the existing watch or a new watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived linear MCS continues to move east across Missouri this morning. This MCS has a history of producing sporadic wind damage along with transient to slightly longer lived low-level circulations/QLCS tornadoes.
The environment along the path of the MCS Monday evening was unstable and highly sheared. SPC mesoanalysis shows the environment ahead of the MCS remains highly sheared -- 40-50 knots effective deep-layer shear -- and remains unstable -- with mixed-layer CAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. SPC Mesoanalysis also shows that this region is a relative minimum in convective inhibition, which would support a continued wind threat/QLCS tornado threat.
Either a local extension of Tornado Watch 298 or a new watch will likely be needed within the next hour.