@nonlinear @sarahjeong.bsky.social
Yes, SpaceX will eventually have a lives-lost incident, and it will be ugly. How the market / investors take it I have no prediction for.
But NASA has had several of those types of accidents over the years, so the waterfall / perfection model isn't immune to them, either. The two shuttle losses were due to bureaucracy that defeated NASA's safety culture, and the Apollo 1 debacle showed that their vaunted safety and technical reviews actually could miss something very important - several things simultaneously, in fact.
I think it's unfair to compare SpaceX's current test-to-failure of Super Heavy and Starship to human-rated missions from anyone. They did the same test-to-failure rapid development with Falcon 9 and Cargo Dragon, leading to Crew Dragon, and they haven't had a life-lost incident yet. They're not deliberately testing-to-failure with humans on board.